The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP <i>Per capita</i> Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez

doi:doi:10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez

Published in International Journal of Science, Technology and Society (Volume 11, Issue 2)

Received: 20 January 2023 Accepted: 6 March 2023 Published: 21 March 2023

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Abstract

The geographical situation in Europe of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Three Baltic States, forms an optimal environment for the study of the economic relationships present among them. The global magnitudes are very similar for the three States, with a little difference in favor of Lithuania regarding population and extension. The three States joined the European Union at the same time, May 1, 2004. A vector autoregressive model, a VAR model, relating the three economies in their temporal evolution is an appropriate model for this study. With the intervention of temporal lags, it is possible to formulate the dynamical relationship present in these economies regarding the percentage growth change in the respective gdp per capita. Our attention is directed to the evolution of this percentage growth rate for the period 1990-2020. The estimated VAR(2) model shows that the percentage change in the gdp per capita of Lithuania is dynamically related to the lagged growth changes of Estonia and Latvia in a direct way, with more complex dynamic relationships regarding the other two States, as explained in the Conclusion. This study is supplemented with the Impulse Response Analysis and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to measure the effects of random impulses in the evolution of the percentage growth change in the estimated model.

Published in	International Journal of Science, Technology and Society (Volume 11, Issue 2)
DOI	10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
Page(s)	74-80
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2024. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Baltic States, GDP Per Capita, Percentage Change, VAR Models, Impulse Response Analysis, Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Vars Statistical Package

References

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[3]	Kitagawa, G. (2010). Introduction to Time Series Modeling, Boca Raton, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
[4]	Koyama, Y. (2020). Political Economy of the Baltic States, Historical Studies of Socialist System 16 (2020) 1-45.
[5]	Lütkepohl, H. and Krätzig, M. (2004). Applied Time Series Econometrics, Cambridge, Cambridge University Press.
[6]	Lütkepohl, H. (2007). New Introduction to Time Series Analysis, Berlin, Springer.
[7]	Martin, V.; Hurn, S. and Harris, D. (2013). Econometric Modelling with Time Series, Specification, Estimation and Testing, New York, Cambridge University Press.
[8]	Nielsen, A. (2020). Practical Time Series Analysis, Prediction with Statistics & Machine Learning, Sebastopol, O’Reilly Media, Inc.
[9]	Pfaff, B. (2006). Analysis of Integrated and Cointegrated Time Series with R, New York, Springer.
[10]	Pfaff, B. (2008). VAR, SVAR and SVEC Models: Implementation Within R, Package vars, Journal of Statistical Software 27 (2008) 1-29.
[11]	Petris, G.; Petrone, S. and Campagnoli, P. (2009). Dynamic Linear Models with R, Dordrecht, Springer.
[12]	Prado, R. and West, M. (2010). Time Series, Modeling, Computation and Inference, Boca Raton, Chapman & Hall/CRC Press.
[13]	Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (2001). Vector Autoregressions, Journal of Economic Perspectives 15 (2001) 101-115.
[14]	Tsay, R. S. (2010). Analysis of Financial Time Series, Hoboken, John Wiley & Sons.
[15]	Tsay, R. S. (2014). Multivariate Time Series Analysis, with R and Financial Applications, Hoboken, John Wiley & Sons.

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Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. (2023). The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). International Journal of Science, Technology and Society, 11(2), 74-80. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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ACS Style

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). Int. J. Sci. Technol. Soc. 2023, 11(2), 74-80. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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AMA Style

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). Int J Sci Technol Soc. 2023;11(2):74-80. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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@article{10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15,
  author = {Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez},
  title = {The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)},
  journal = {International Journal of Science, Technology and Society},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {74-80},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  abstract = {The geographical situation in Europe of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Three Baltic States, forms an optimal environment for the study of the economic relationships present among them.  The global magnitudes are very similar for the three States, with a little difference in favor of Lithuania regarding population and extension. The three States joined the European Union at the same time, May 1, 2004. A vector autoregressive model, a VAR model, relating the three economies in their temporal evolution is an appropriate model for this study. With the intervention of temporal lags, it is possible to formulate the dynamical relationship present in these economies regarding the percentage growth change in the respective gdp per capita. Our attention is directed to the evolution of this percentage growth rate for the period 1990-2020. The estimated VAR(2) model shows that the percentage change in the gdp per capita of Lithuania is dynamically related to the lagged growth changes of Estonia and Latvia in a direct way, with more complex dynamic relationships regarding the other two States, as explained in the Conclusion. This study is supplemented with the Impulse Response Analysis and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to measure the effects of random impulses in the evolution of the percentage growth change in the estimated model.},
 year = {2023}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)
AU  - Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez
Y1  - 2023/03/21
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
T2  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
JF  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
JO  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
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PB  - Science Publishing Group
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AB  - The geographical situation in Europe of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Three Baltic States, forms an optimal environment for the study of the economic relationships present among them.  The global magnitudes are very similar for the three States, with a little difference in favor of Lithuania regarding population and extension. The three States joined the European Union at the same time, May 1, 2004. A vector autoregressive model, a VAR model, relating the three economies in their temporal evolution is an appropriate model for this study. With the intervention of temporal lags, it is possible to formulate the dynamical relationship present in these economies regarding the percentage growth change in the respective gdp per capita. Our attention is directed to the evolution of this percentage growth rate for the period 1990-2020. The estimated VAR(2) model shows that the percentage change in the gdp per capita of Lithuania is dynamically related to the lagged growth changes of Estonia and Latvia in a direct way, with more complex dynamic relationships regarding the other two States, as explained in the Conclusion. This study is supplemented with the Impulse Response Analysis and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to measure the effects of random impulses in the evolution of the percentage growth change in the estimated model.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

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Author Information

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez

Department of Econometrics, Real Centro Universitario “Escorial-María Cristina”, San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Madrid), Spain

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APA Style

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. (2023). The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). International Journal of Science, Technology and Society, 11(2), 74-80. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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ACS Style

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). Int. J. Sci. Technol. Soc. 2023, 11(2), 74-80. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

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AMA Style

Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez. The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021). Int J Sci Technol Soc. 2023;11(2):74-80. doi: 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15

Copy | Download

@article{10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15,
  author = {Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez},
  title = {The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)},
  journal = {International Journal of Science, Technology and Society},
  volume = {11},
  number = {2},
  pages = {74-80},
  doi = {10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.ijsts.20231102.15},
  abstract = {The geographical situation in Europe of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Three Baltic States, forms an optimal environment for the study of the economic relationships present among them.  The global magnitudes are very similar for the three States, with a little difference in favor of Lithuania regarding population and extension. The three States joined the European Union at the same time, May 1, 2004. A vector autoregressive model, a VAR model, relating the three economies in their temporal evolution is an appropriate model for this study. With the intervention of temporal lags, it is possible to formulate the dynamical relationship present in these economies regarding the percentage growth change in the respective gdp per capita. Our attention is directed to the evolution of this percentage growth rate for the period 1990-2020. The estimated VAR(2) model shows that the percentage change in the gdp per capita of Lithuania is dynamically related to the lagged growth changes of Estonia and Latvia in a direct way, with more complex dynamic relationships regarding the other two States, as explained in the Conclusion. This study is supplemented with the Impulse Response Analysis and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to measure the effects of random impulses in the evolution of the percentage growth change in the estimated model.},
 year = {2023}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - The Dynamic Relationship of the GDP Per capita Among the Three Baltic States (1990-2021)
AU  - Agustín Alonso-Rodríguez
Y1  - 2023/03/21
PY  - 2023
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
DO  - 10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
T2  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
JF  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
JO  - International Journal of Science, Technology and Society
SP  - 74
EP  - 80
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2330-7420
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.ijsts.20231102.15
AB  - The geographical situation in Europe of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, the Three Baltic States, forms an optimal environment for the study of the economic relationships present among them.  The global magnitudes are very similar for the three States, with a little difference in favor of Lithuania regarding population and extension. The three States joined the European Union at the same time, May 1, 2004. A vector autoregressive model, a VAR model, relating the three economies in their temporal evolution is an appropriate model for this study. With the intervention of temporal lags, it is possible to formulate the dynamical relationship present in these economies regarding the percentage growth change in the respective gdp per capita. Our attention is directed to the evolution of this percentage growth rate for the period 1990-2020. The estimated VAR(2) model shows that the percentage change in the gdp per capita of Lithuania is dynamically related to the lagged growth changes of Estonia and Latvia in a direct way, with more complex dynamic relationships regarding the other two States, as explained in the Conclusion. This study is supplemented with the Impulse Response Analysis and the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition to measure the effects of random impulses in the evolution of the percentage growth change in the estimated model.
VL  - 11
IS  - 2
ER  -

Copy | Download